jordan179 - The Egyptian Crisis
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The Egyptian Crisis
There is a tendency to view what is happpening in Egypt as a "democratic revolution," and therefore something which would be good should it succeeed. However, this ignores an important aspect of the situation in Eygpt, and indeed in most Muslim monarchies or dictatorships.
them</i> for the screwed-up conditions in their own country.
The effect, however, is that the majority of people in most Mideastern Muslim countries are essentially living in a fantasy world, in which they and their brethren are the most powerful and feared people on Earth, who would rule the world were it not for being continually opposed by America, undermined by Israel, and betrayed by shadowy traitors from within. Not surprisingly, with those beliefs, the majority political hope is that the traitors be swept away and the campaign to destroy Israel and conquer the world commence forthwith.
It's true that the rule of a majority of the Western-educated people in Egypt might produce something like a liberal democracy, or at least an Egyptian approach to same. The problem is that the Islamists can use the will of the (propagandized) people, to instead install an Islamic Republic and commence the jihad.
So from our point of view, it's actually better if the (dictatorial) regime remains in power. And it's better from the (educated) Egyptian point of view, since the real outcome of jihad will probably be the deaths of most of the Egyptian people, with extreme suffering for the survivors.
Why do I say that? Well, in general it is a bad idea for any country to scream and leap at more powerful neighbors. But there are several aspects about the situation in Egypt which make it an especially bad idea for that country.
(1) The Aswan Dam - Nasser, in his great wisdom, decided to build a high dam across the Nile River at Aswan. The lake behind it holds 111 cubic kilometers of water.
Now, most of the population of Egypt lives in a rather narrow valley on the banks of the Nile. This valley is actually a canyon for a good part of its length.
In a war, the Aswan Dam would be an obvious target: it supplies much of Egypt's water and power.
What happens if someone drops the dam suddenly? Well, all of that 111 cubic-kilometer lake that happens to be above the level of the main river surges downstream, a mighty hydraulic ram, erasing everything for many, many kilometers downstream. Villages, towns, cities, people ... millions would perish. The only parts of the river that would be mostly safe would be in the Delta, where the terrain fans out, and even there the surge of water would probably do some damage.
Is a serious war likely? Well ...
(2) The Camp David Treaty - One thing which a jihadist Egyptian regime would be very likely to do would be to repudiate the Camp David Peace Accords of 1978. This would almost be de rigeur, as they recognize the State of Israel and establish a permanent peace with her (both anathema to jihadists).
The problem is that it was under the Camp David Treaty that Israel returned the Sinai Peninsula to Egypt. If Egypt materially breaks or formally abrogates the treaty, Israel would be well within her rights under international law to take back the peninsula by force. While it's true that, given current global levels of anti-Semitism, this right would probably not be recognized by the UN or even the EU, the fact remains that such a war would probably be winnable by Israel.
Would such a war be likely? Well, Israel has gotten into the habit of letting other countries violate truces and treaties with her without demanding the return of her own concessions in those agreements, but it is hardly safe to assume that Israel will continue doing so, especially since much of Israel's current peacefulness was in reaction to the success of the Camp David Peace Accord. Should that break down, the game becomes more wide-open.
One must also consider the Gaza Strip. Right now, the Egyptians are preventing Hamas from supplying its own forces through Egyptian territory. But an Islamist regime would almost certainly open its border with the Gaza, making it impossible for the Israelis to maintain the blockade, and essentially using the Gaza as a deniable advance-base from which Israel could be bombarded. Such a provocation would be very likely to result in open war between Israel and Egypt.
There's also the issue of ...
(3) The Suez Canal - One of the world's most strategic waterways, Egypt is both by the treaty under which she received control of the canal and implicitly by the Camp David Accords bound to keep the Canal open to international shipping. The last time Egypt broke this agreement, in 1956, it led to the Suez War, and indirectly to the disastrous (for Egypt) wars of 1967 and 1973.
A jihadist regime would be very likely to close the Canal to Israel, and even to the shipping of nations involved in the current War on Terror. This would not only be an act of war against those nations, but a highly material one which would inflict immediate and ongoing economic damage. Consequently, it would be very likely to lead to an actual shooting war, at least a limited one aimed at wresting control of the Canal from the Egyptians.
Conclusion
So, if an Islamist regime takes control of Egypt after Mubarak, there is a very good chance that Egypt will wind up in a shooting war with Israel, and possibly America and the rest of the Western Powers.
How likely is such an outcome?
Well, right now, Mohammed ElBaradei is the likeliest successor to the Mubaraks. But ElBaradei, as a figure of the very international elite whom the Islamists hate, is not all that likely to be able to stay in power in the event of an actual violent revoluttion.
Remember Abolhassan Banisadr of Iran. He was the leader of Iran right after the 1979 Revolution, but the radicals under Khomeini quickly maneuvered him out by provoking the Hostage Crisis and riding the resultant Islamist triuphalism to supreme power. In the end, he was impeached, his closest friend executed, and he was forced to flee for his life.
ElBaradei looks to be the "Banisadr" of the Egyptian Revolution, if the risings are not put down. He will become President amidst much fanfare and Western support, only to be maneuvered out by the fanatics, probably as part of a war said fanatics provoke with various Western Powers.
And then Egypt's fate looks very dark indeed.
Current Mood:  contemplative
Tags: america, diplomacy, egypt, europe, iran, islamism, israel, politics, rebellion, revolution
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| | What do you think of the claims that what pushed Egypt over the edge were food prices, elevated by Obama/Pelosi stimulus spending and ethanol regulations? ![[User Picture]](http://l-userpic.livejournal.com/110176416/1127499) | | From: | ![[info]](http://l-stat.livejournal.com/img/userinfo.gif?v=92.1) luagha |
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| Date: | February 1st, 2011 09:47 pm (UTC) |
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I don't know how much of Egypt's wheat comes from elsewhere in Africa, but I do know that the Ug99 wheat blight is still ravaging the continent's harvests. I think it was in 2008, for instance, when it killed 80% of Kenya's crop. Which is why it is my belief that the leaders of the Islamic brotherhood be assassinated here and now while the chaos hides the mess. But alas, the old mantra "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" currently holds sway over there, and will do so until the Brotherhood draws its knives in the night. By then, it will probably be too late.
Anyone taking the reins will have to be ruthless in dealing with the jihadists. And I just don't see that happening. An exceptional analysis.
I wonder how much of this Obama might not want. Revelations
Chapter 16
16:1 I heard a loud voice out of the temple, saying to the seven angels, "Go and pour out the seven bowls of the wrath of God on the earth!"
16:2 The first went, and poured out his bowl into the earth, and it became a harmful and evil sore on the people who had the mark of the beast, and who worshiped his image.
16:3 The second angel poured out his bowl into the sea, and it became blood as of a dead man. Every living thing in the sea died.
16:4 The third poured out his bowl into the rivers and springs of water, and they became blood.
16:5 I heard the angel of the waters saying, "You are righteous, who are and who were, you Holy One, because you have judged these things.
16:6 For they poured out the blood of the saints and the prophets, and you have given them blood to drink. They deserve this."
16:7 I heard the altar saying, "Yes, Lord God, the Almighty, true and righteous are your judgments."
16:8 The fourth poured out his bowl on the sun, and it was given to him to scorch men with fire.
16:9 People were scorched with great heat, and people blasphemed the name of God who has the power over these plagues. They didn't repent and give him glory.
16:10 The fifth poured out his bowl on the throne of the beast, and his kingdom was darkened. They gnawed their tongues because of the pain,
16:11 and they blasphemed the God of heaven because of their pains and their sores. They didn't repent of their works.
16:12 The sixth poured out his bowl on the great river, the Euphrates. Its water was dried up, that the way might be made ready for the kings that come from the sunrise.
16:13 I saw coming out of the mouth of the dragon, and out of the mouth of the beast, and out of the mouth of the false prophet, three unclean spirits, something like frogs;
16:14 for they are spirits of demons, performing signs; which go forth to the kings of the whole inhabited earth, to gather them together for the war of that great day of God, the Almighty.
16:15 "Behold, I come like a thief. Blessed is he who watches, and keeps his clothes, so that he doesn't walk naked, and they see his shame."
16:16 He gathered them together into the place which is called in Hebrew, Megiddo.
16:17 The seventh poured out his bowl into the air. A loud voice came forth out of the temple of heaven, from the throne, saying, "It is done!"
16:18 There were lightnings, sounds, and thunders; and there was a great earthquake, such as was not since there were men on the earth, so great an earthquake, so mighty.
16:19 The great city was divided into three parts, and the cities of the nations fell. Babylon the great was remembered in the sight of God, to give to her the cup of the wine of the fierceness of his wrath.
16:20 Every island fled away, and the mountains were not found.
16:21 Great hailstones, about the weight of a talent, came down out of the sky on people. People blasphemed God because of the plague of the hail, for this plague is exceedingly severe. Matthew 24:6 You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come.
Mark 13:5 Jesus said to them: “Watch out that no one deceives you. 6Many will come in my name, claiming, ‘I am he,’ and will deceive many. 7When you hear of wars and rumors of wars, do not be alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. ![[User Picture]](http://l-userpic.livejournal.com/51169053/910303) | | From: | lather2002 |
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| Date: | February 1st, 2011 11:53 pm (UTC) |
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| | By the way ... | (Link) |
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A few years ago while visiting Israel I stood upon the plains of what is known as Megiddo. Just saying ... ';=p
Edited at 2011-02-02 04:49 am (UTC) ![[User Picture]](http://l-userpic.livejournal.com/45054419/5143358) | | From: | pasquin |
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| Date: | February 3rd, 2011 03:19 am (UTC) |
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A shooting war, with our weapons. Against our weapons. No longer the mismatch of previous wars. Intelligently, America should ... pause... support for Egypt until it shows that it is 1) no friend of the Brotherhood and 2) a friend to America, and intends Israel no harm. This is for its' own safety, really.
However, I do not see ElBaradei as being a strong figure or personality; if he does not bow to the Brotherhood, he is likely to be swiftly assassinated (and we know how treacherous even their bodyguards can be); and will likely lose support of the people if he shows himself to be pragmatically pro-American (because pro-American he is NOT) and in toning down rhethoric against at least the Christian Copts. That he becomes a puppet to the Brotherhood is the scenario that looks to be the most likely outcome.
If Egypt throws open its' border to Gaza, I hope that Israel has the presence of mind enough to choose its' own survival, lay waste to Gaza, and leave a wreckage filled with mines and booby traps. A shooting war with American-supplied weapons? I hope that both America and Israel have the wit to start destroying the Egyptian arsenals, especially as they were provided to an ally. An enemy has no rights to those arms, at all.
The question is more 'How much time is left before a real shooting war breaks loose'? You mean like this incident?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planned_destruction_of_Warsaw Geez, yama, you just don't seem to think that being banned applies to you, does it? *laughing* man, you just walked right into it and outright proved it's you, erasing any doubt of your identity. Thanks a lot. ^.^v
And yes, we know you don't care what you think. This was a realization we all came to a long time ago.
Edited at 2011-02-06 01:54 am (UTC) Fucking typo.
Anyway, my point still stands: you're genocidal and should be kept from any position more powerful than dog catcher. ![[User Picture]](http://l-userpic.livejournal.com/7824777/1102702) | | From: | manta_x |
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| Date: | February 6th, 2011 04:03 am (UTC) |
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| | Yama | (Link) |
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Point still stands you were banned, you've been told your thoughts and opinions are no longer welcome 'round these parts, and you should really just fuck-off.
Go find someone else to stalk and bitch about.
This isn't a discussion about what you think of someone, it's a discussion about the events in Egypt.
And dog catcher might be fine- because that would give her all the rights to drag you out back and put you down, you simpering little mutt.
Go pander for attention somewhere else. ![[User Picture]](http://l-userpic.livejournal.com/103786200/279274) | | From: | oronoda |
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| Date: | February 6th, 2011 04:24 am (UTC) |
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| | Re: Yama | (Link) |
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And dog catcher might be fine- because that would give her all the rights to drag you out back and put you down, you simpering little mutt.
WIN!
![[User Picture]](http://l-userpic.livejournal.com/31680136/650739) | | From: | ![[info]](http://l-files.livejournal.net/userhead/244?v=1321199785) cutelildrow |
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| Date: | February 6th, 2011 11:20 am (UTC) |
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| | I <3 you, and this is one of the reasons why | (Link) |
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Ah, he's upset that you got me first, love. Apparently he gets really upset when hot Asians don't fall all over his whiteyness and run away screaming from his crazy. Unfortunately for him, I have much, much better taste; which is why you and I are a couple. (And our children show how good that decision was...) And dog catcher might be fine- because that would give her all the rights to drag you out back and put you down, you simpering little mutt. He seems to forget what happens to stray dogs here in the Philippines. *slight smile* In his case though, yeah, he'd probably just end up put down and buried in garbage; That's the standard operating procedure when faced with a frothing at the mouth, rabid mangy stray like yama. | | Re: I <3 you, and this is one of the reasons why | (Link) |
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Wait a minute, where's Laos, again? Hm, must be in Patagonia or Mars or the Emerald City, because it can't can't possibly be in Asia, after all.
(and I'm suddenly thinking back to Johnny and Elliot's playthrough of Sonic CD in which Amy hugs Sonic. Johnny and Elliot: Awww... Elliot: Burn her.)
PS: Fascists aren't attractive. ![[User Picture]](http://l-userpic.livejournal.com/104380784/279274) | | From: | oronoda |
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| Date: | February 6th, 2011 04:57 pm (UTC) |
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| | Re: I <3 you, and this is one of the reasons why | (Link) |
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You used fascist incorrectly. You automatically fail.  And you aren't from Laos. I've met a few Laotians and I find it is insulting that you used that nationality to make up for your obvious white guilt. Now go watch zeigeist, feel bad about the fact that you aren't a minority, and hypocritically plot harm of Sarah Palin on your own blog. Basically, you are like the person who climbed through the window when the lock on the front door was more than clear that you aren't invited. You are pathetic and have no life. Go think windmills are giants elsewhere.   | | Re: I <3 you, and this is one of the reasons why | (Link) |
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Oh, come on, there's a blog that says I'm Lao.
(but I am legitimately part Arab) | | Re: I <3 you, and this is one of the reasons why | (Link) |
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How in god's holy fuck is suggesting a comic where a caribou or a leucrotta wears Sarah Palin's head and hands on his antlers for a fortnight plotting harm on her?
And bold words from someone with a faux-Japanese name. ![[User Picture]](http://l-userpic.livejournal.com/96351235/279274) | | From: | oronoda |
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| Date: | February 6th, 2011 08:18 pm (UTC) |
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| | Re: I <3 you, and this is one of the reasons why | (Link) |
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Wow, I was speculating. But now that you mention that and have an issue with an obvious joke of Ground Zero Ocean makes you nothing but a severe hypocrite.
Please, stop insulting Arabs by claiming to be one. I know plenty of upstanding people who are Arab and they would take issue with your stupidity.
Oh what is that? Are you trying to insult my username? One that I created over 10 years ago? Is that really the best you got? That is hilarious! Your effort to be insulting is just so pathetically funny.
Seriously, go and get a life and stop stalking journals which make it very clear you are UNINVITED. It is a beautiful day outside. Go toss a ball around. ![[User Picture]](http://l-userpic.livejournal.com/116677657/650739) | | From: | cutelildrow |
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| Date: | February 7th, 2011 11:55 am (UTC) |
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| | Re: I <3 you, and this is one of the reasons why | (Link) |
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I'm wondering what new ethnic descent he's going to claim to have next. I mean, it's rather revealing, really, how much he hates himself that he HAS to claim that he's Laotian (and this is the same moron who keeps throwing around 'blogs aren't a source, but then also says that there is a blog that says he's Laotian, as if that's supposed to be worth anything...)
I mean, how pathetic is he? And, I wonder what he'll do next to prove exactly how much of a pathetic sad sack he is... | | From: | jordan179 |
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| Date: | March 25th, 2011 07:19 pm (UTC) |
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| | Re: I <3 you, and this is one of the reasons why | (Link) |
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What does Laos have to do with Egypt or the Philippines? Doesn't it bother you when your comments aren't even marginally logical? Fascists aren't attractive.This does explain why you can't get a girlfriend, Yama. Perhaps you should stop being a fascist, then. But what's its relevance to cutelildrow? I do hope there's more than one person in the world who thinks you're completely batshit insane. I'll see what fstdt has to say about this...
Man, grudgewank is so lame. Did you even read what Drow proposed for Palestine if Mubarak falls? I'm not talking about her right now; I'm talking about your intentions.
You can disagree with her all you want but grudgewank is still grudgewank. ![[User Picture]](http://l-userpic.livejournal.com/104785202/279274) | | From: | oronoda |
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| Date: | February 6th, 2011 04:34 pm (UTC) |
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I speculate that it's the only way he CAN wank, honestly. That's how much of a non-life he's got to have, if he has the time to check my blog multiple times a day. |
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