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America Faces Explicit War Threat By Iran - jordan179 — LiveJournal
December 28th, 2011
02:01 pm

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America Faces Explicit War Threat By Iran
Courtesy of ALI AKBAR DAREINI and TAREK EL-TABLAWY, AP today, "US warns Iran against closing key oil passage,"

http://news.yahoo.com/us-warns-iran-against-closing-key-oil-passage-181233732.html

The U.S. strongly warned Iran on Wednesday against closing a vital Persian Gulf waterway that carries one-sixth of the world's oil supply, after Iran threatened to choke off traffic through the Strait of Hormuz if Washington imposes sanctions targeting the country's crude exports.

Note the key point here: Iran threatened to choke off traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which is an international waterway. What Iran is threatening is a blockade, which is an operation of war. The warlike nature of the threat is easily understood when one imagines what the Iranian naval forces would do if shipping traffic chose to ignore their warnings: they would attempt to sink, capture or turn back the ships by force of arms.

Note also that this is in response to non-warlike acts by America and the UN: the imposition of sanctions including an embargo, which is not imposed by force on any shipping other than that of those Powers agreeing to the embargo. The Iranians are saying that they have the right to go to war against countries who refuse to trade with them.

(*brief nod of "thanks" to the revisionist historians who claimed that Japan was justified in going to war aganist America because America refused to ship them iron and oil -- you guys helped create the perception on the part of the Iranians that they would be justified in doing the same thing*)

The U.S. Congress has passed a bill that penalizes foreign firms that do business with the Iran Central Bank, a move that would heavily hurt Iran's ability to export crude. European and Asian nations use the bank for transactions to import Iranian oil.

President Barack Obama has said he will sign the bill despite his misgivings. China and Russia have opposed such measures.


Way to go, Obama. Let the Iranians know that you have "misgivings," so as to create the perception that you are weak and irresolute and embolden them to try a blockade. Given the disparity in strength, this is the only way that even the Iranians would dare to launch a naval war against America: if they assume that we won't fight back.

What remains unclear is what routes the Gulf nations could take to move the oil to markets if Iran goes through with its threat.

About 15 million barrels per day pass through the Hormuz Strait, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

There are some pipelines that could be tapped, but Gulf oil leaders, who met in Cairo on Dec. 24, declined to say whether they had discussed alternate routes or what they may be.


Note the assumption here that America would back down before the Iranian threat: the obvious response to such an Iranian action would be to immediately begin smashing the Iranian Air Force, Iranian ground batteries, and Iranian warships so as to make it impossible for the Iranians to maintain their blockade. Thank you, Obama, for causing our enemies to assume that we are so weak.

Look on the bright side, Left. You may soon have another war to feel virtuous demonstrating against!

Oh, one more thing. Aren't you really glad right now that Iran doesn't have the Bomb yet? If this is how they behave when their words are not backed by nuclear weapons, how shall they behave when they are so founded?

Current Mood: worriedworried
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(68 comments | Leave a comment)

Comments
 
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From:luagha
Date:December 28th, 2011 10:19 pm (UTC)
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Why would they be provoking us if they didn't have a bomb ready?
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From:belvarius
Date:December 28th, 2011 10:52 pm (UTC)
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I believe they're provoking us because as Jordan said they perceive Obama as being weak. Should they not have the bomb by the time the elections are over and somebody else wins the presidency Iran may very well change it's stance.
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From:jordan179
Date:December 29th, 2011 06:19 pm (UTC)
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Well, because they are insanely overconfident, partly due to their religious fanaticism (the Will of Allah rules all!) and partly due to our own foolish restraint (they have already done things for which they might reasonably expect to see their cities burning beneath our bombardments and suffered at most very limited retaliation, so they now assume that they can do anything and get away with it).

We can't do anything about the former (well, we can, but we won't), but we can easily do something about the latter, and without sacrificing any but the most puerile and ill-founded of our ideals.
From:(Anonymous)
Date:December 28th, 2011 10:40 pm (UTC)
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It can't be that bad if it hurts the Saudis.
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From:jordan179
Date:December 29th, 2011 06:20 am (UTC)
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Look, everyone, it's Yama demonstrating what an idiot he is!

Why do I say this? Because a war between America and Iran would only very slightly hurt the Saudis, and only during the initial phase when the Iranians could still enforce their blockade. Then, American naval and air forces would utterly-annihilate the Iranian forces capable of projecting power into the Straits of Hormuz, and by extension those capable of projecting power against Saudi Arabia. The main result of the war would be that Iran's force-projection capabilities would be severely degraded for years, possibly decades to come, which would help the Saudis, since Iran is the major remaining enemy of Saudi Arabia.

The only thing the Saudis have to fear is that we will yield to the Iranians.
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From:xolo
Date:December 28th, 2011 10:52 pm (UTC)
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Iran cries out to be bombed! How much longer will we deny them?
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From:lather2002
Date:December 28th, 2011 11:44 pm (UTC)
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Just in time for the 2012 elections. By that I mean, depending on what Obama does, it could save his presidency. Imagine on the eve of the election Obama decides to attack Iran and wipe out its navy and most of it's land forces along with it's sites that are developing nuclear weapons. His domestic approval rating will jump overnight to unprecedented highs more or less guaranteeing his re-election as President. Just saying
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From:jordan179
Date:December 29th, 2011 06:33 am (UTC)
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What does that statement even mean in connection to my post? I could take it at least two ways, and it doesn't make very much sense either way.
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From:ladyarkham
Date:December 29th, 2011 12:31 am (UTC)

i have nothing intelligent to say

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...but I'd love to see any country trying to take a bunch of ships by force of farms.
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From:jordan179
Date:December 29th, 2011 06:34 am (UTC)

Re: i have nothing intelligent to say

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ROFLMAO!!! Thank you for spotting that! (*fixed*)
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From:kitten_goddess
Date:December 29th, 2011 01:28 am (UTC)
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Ugh. Another reason we need to explore alternative energy sources, including nuclear power, biofuels, solar, wind, and hydroelectric power. The sooner we kick our oil addiction, the sooner we can stop letting a bunch of backwards desert dwellers dictate our foreign policy.
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From:prester_scott
Date:December 29th, 2011 02:02 am (UTC)
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Lifting the bans on oil production on our own soil and in the Gulf of Mexico would help too.
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From:polaris93
Date:December 30th, 2011 05:55 am (UTC)
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Part of the problem in dealing with Iran, at least for now, is that they see us as weak because we aren't fanatical about anything the way they are about Jihad and other aspects of Islamism. Furthermore, the Obama administration doesn't take their fanaticism seriously, and may not even believe that they are fanatics. The psychological advantage is thus all Iran's. Maybe it will take a war with Iran to wake up the electorate to the danger we face from them.
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